Por: Miguel Carrillo Naranjo - Hamkke Consulting
Some anxious investors On February, 2014 when the financial news headlines focused on “The emerging markets mess” leaded by Argentinian Peso, and Turkey’s Lira, these currencies hit a new record low against the dollar, and contagious most of Emerging market economies unveiling fundamentals problems in Brazil, Argentina, Turkey, Egypt, South Africa, Ukraine, India and Russia among others.
Some analysts make responsible of this turbulence to the speculation about U.S. Federal Reserve`s bond-buying program, and when the crisis bell is ringing speculators and anxious investor are move by the psychological fear, that already pulled out from emerging economies over 10 billion dollars.
For Long term investors clearly we are in a cycle where the world`s economy is assimilating the new players and challenges after the financial crisis, and each country tend to adjust their fundamentals to boost their economies. This is the time when emerging markets present the exam.
But indeed this turmoil is more about economic fundamentals, and long term investors must clearly separate the emerging countries performing well from a geographical economic block, given that for many years emerging markets in South America has been leaded by Brazil and Argentina, therefore when these two countries are in problems some media and investors set panic alarms for all countries, but nowadays this is not the best approach.
Argentina is unveiling their problems: rampant inflation, a tumbling currency, oil woes, and close to loses its title as the third largest economy in Latin America.
Brazilian economy is struggling with high inflation, consumer confidence decreasing, delays and cost overruns linked to the soccer world cup infrastructure, and social discontent on the raise.
According to the Index of Economic Freedom 2014, Brazil world rank is 114 declining in topics such as labor, monetary, fiscal and trade freedom. Argentina world rank is 166 declining in topics such as investment, business, labor freedom and management of government spending.
In May 2009 the Global X FTSE Colombia 20 ETF was launched, an according to Bloomberg its assets are USD 89 Billion (2014-1-31). Foreign Direct Investment in 2013 surpass USD 16 Billion, boosted by oil sector. On October 24th, 2014 the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC), in a press release states that FDI inflows in Latin America and Caribbean countries that have available data decreased by 23% during the first half of 2014 with respect to the same period last year, except for Colombia Uruguay and Panama countries where FDI grew in the analysis period.
Countries in South America such as Colombia are outperforming the leading economies in the region such as Brazil, Mexico and Argentina. Colombia´s GDP growth has been solid in the last years with an average of 4%, a controlled inflation of 1.9% in 2013. GDP per capita has doubled over the last decade, raising the purchasing power what has been helping the economy in the worst global financial crisis, to keep its pace thanks to the internal consumption and implementation of fiscal reforms. In the second quarter of 2014 economy grew 4.3%, and the first half of 2014 5.4% with all the main sectors of the economy growing, according to the national department of statistics (DANE).
Colombia is the radar of investors all over the world, multinationals are convinced of the bright future of the country planning their investment in the long term, such as the case of Citigroup Inc.(C) that announced on October to exit consumer banking in 6 Latin American countries, except Colombia. Likewise, in the same month Colombia sold to fund 2015 budget, $1billion of bonds in overseas market. Demand totaled 7.7 times the amount offered, setting a new record according with the Colombian government.
Colombia’s Government development plan is focusing on infrastructure, oil and mining, agribusiness, manufacturing, education among others. In order to boost growth there are investment incentives, and tools such as Public Private Partnership (PPP) aimed to ease and attract FDI.
This is the time to invest In Colombia, contact us to help you do it in a successful way, and let us be your trustworthy adviser to do business in Colombia.